The price of Etherum's origin token Ether (ETH) shows that there is also a growing conflict among traders about the market trend in March. These variability have resulted in a small horizontal range of ETH prices ranging from $1600 to $1700 since Feb. 15.

ETH price adjustment of 25% in March

This kind of variability stems from the fact that the ether has long been waiting for a new upgrade in Shanghai to be released at some point in March.

Several analysts predict that the update will allow stock makers to revoke their tokens from etheric proof of ownership (POS) blockchain smart contracts, which will lead to a sell-off in the short term.

Since the launch of the Etherum POS blockchain smart contract in December 2020, the Ethercan has attracted more than 17.4 million ETH (about $28.35 billion at real-time exchange rates).

In addition, Ether finds it difficult to break through the technical friction section. Since August 2022, the etheric token has repeatedly tried to rotate the $1650-1700 area to support it, as shown in the red bar in the picture below.

Interestingly, each unsuccessful ascension attempts to result in a strong adjustment to the same support level, the upward trend line (gray and black) for several months.

So, if history is any guide, ETH's last adjustment could bring its price close to $1250, a 25% drop from its current level. Conversely, an increase of $1650 to $1700 will cause ETH to become the next overall target in the $1925-2000 range (blue-purple).

Future ETH selling will be very limited-data tracking

From the perspective of transmission chain, the probability of long-term collapse of Ether price seems to be relatively small.

In particular, the supply of ETH on the exchange has declined significantly since September 2022-from about 30 per cent to 11 per cent. In theory, with the transfer of capital inside and outside the market, this relieves the current selling pressure.

Sandy Monti stressed: "the situation of login passwords, especially since September, has been rapidly shifting to self-escrow."

This trend picked up after the collapse of FTX. In any case, because the foreign exchange supplies of Bitcoin and ETH are around the end of five years, the future selling will be very limited.

In addition, CryptoQuant, a data analysis company, summed up similar views on possible etheric selling in the future, mainly after the sharp fall in the Shanghai stock market.

CryptoQuant stresses that 60 per cent of fixed ETH supplies-about 10.3 million ETH-are currently losing money. In addition, the largest etheric bet service provider, Lido, has 30% of all bets on ETH, with an average loss of $1000, or 24%.

"generally speaking, selling pressure tends to occur when participants are very profitable, so this is not the case with the current bet on ETH," CryptoQuant wrote. "

"in addition, the most profitable bet on ETH would have been less than a year ago, and there has been no significant profit-taking in the past."